WTPN31 PGTW 070300 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 070000Z7 --- NEAR 10.0N1 126.7E6 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.0N1 126.7E6 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z0 --- 11.3N5 126.1E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z8 --- 12.6N9 125.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z1 --- 13.8N2 124.7E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 14.7N2 123.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 15.2N8 121.5E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTH SEMICIRCLE 040 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 070300Z0 POSITION NEAR 10.3N4 126.6E5. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75NM EAST OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF MINDANAO HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 062330Z4 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS, COASTAL SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF 10 KNOTS, AND A SHIP REPORT OF 20 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z7 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 061651Z MAY 01 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 061700) NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z6, 071500Z3, 072100Z0 AND 080300Z1.// ------------------------------------------- WDPN31 PGTW 070300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W WARNING NR 1// RMKS/1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 070000Z7 TO 100000Z1 MAY 01. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75NM EAST OF THE NORTHERN TIP OF MINDANAO HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 062330Z4 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS, COASTAL SYNOPTIC REPORTS OF 10KTS, AND A SHIP REPORT OF 20 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEPENING CONVECTION, SHEARING OFF TO THE NORTHWEST, OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. B. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE 36 HOUR PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. AFTER THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL STEER THE SYSTEM WESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE FORECAST AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. HPAC, CLIP, CLIM, AND THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BETA ADVECTION MODELS, ARE THE BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. C. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE 72 HOUR PERIOD UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE- SIZED SYSTEM. FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/EDBERG//