WTPN31 PGTW 072100    
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W WARNING NR 004    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z6 --- NEAR 10.8N9 125.7E5
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N9 125.7E5
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z4 --- 11.4N6 124.7E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z7 --- 12.0N3 123.8E4
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z5 --- 12.7N0 122.8E3
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z8 --- 13.3N7 121.8E2
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z0 --- 14.5N0 119.9E0
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z0 POSITION NEAR 10.9N0 125.4E2.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM SOUTHEAST 
OF TACLOBAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071730Z8 INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND COASTAL 
SYNOPTIC REPORTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z7 IS 12 
FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. 
NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z1, 080900Z7, 081500Z4 AND 082100Z1.//
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WDPN31 PGTW 071500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W WARNING 
NR 3//
RMKS/1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 071200Z0 TO 101200Z4 MAY 01.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF SAMAR ISLAND HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 071130Z2 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS AND 
COASTAL SYNOPTIC REPORTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE 200 MB 
ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE TD 03W IS JUST SOUTH OF 
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN MODERATE EASTERLIES. 
   B. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A SLIGHT 
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE MID-PERIOD. THE TRACK IS 
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE 
NORTHWEST AND STEERS THE SYSTEM FURTHER WESTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER 
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE FORECAST AIDS ARE IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT. HPAC, CSUM, AND THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BETA ADVECTION 
MODELS ARE THE BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
   C. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE 72 HOUR PERIOD AS LAND TOPOGRAPHY 
INTERFERES WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW. 
   D. NO FORECASTED WIND RADII.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/SHERRY//