SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING WTPN31 PGTW 080900 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080600Z4 --- NEAR 12.3N6 124.2E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N6 124.2E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z7 --- 12.9N2 123.2E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z5 --- 13.5N9 122.1E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z8 --- 14.0N5 121.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z7 --- 14.9N4 119.9E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z8 --- 17.0N8 117.3E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 080900Z7 POSITION NEAR 12.4N7 123.9E5. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM NORTHWEST OF TACLOBAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 080530Z6 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z4 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z4, 082100Z1, 090300Z2 AND 090900Z8.// NNNN ------------------------------------------------- WDPN31 PGTW 080300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W WARNING NR 5// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 080000Z8 TO 110000Z2 MAY 01. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 10 NM NORTH OF TACLOBAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. UW-CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS INDICATES IMPROVING CONDITIONS ALOFT WITH DECREASING SHEAR OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS FORMING JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. B. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE FORECAST AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE NAVY OPERATIONAL GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (NOGAPS) AND THE GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN) MODELS TRACK THE SYSTEM WEST- NORTHWESTWARD. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN TRACKS ARE BEING PULLED MORE WESTWARD DUE TO SLIGHT INTERACTION WITH A SECONDARY LOW LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THESE TWO MODELS ALSO MAINTAIN A STRONGER RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AS COMPARED TO THE EGRR MODEL. THE UK-MET OFFICE (EGRR) MODEL TRACKS THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A MODIFIED CONSENSUS OF THE THREE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS (EGRR, NOGAPS, AND GFDN) BY FAVORING THE MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF EGRR. C. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN MINIMAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH AS LAND TOPOGRAPHY INTERFERES WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AFTER THIS TIME AS IT MOVES BACK OVER OPEN WATER. D. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGED SIZE STORM. FORECAST TEAM: CANTRELL/WHITCOMB// NNNN