SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING WTPN31 PGTW 081500 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z1 --- NEAR 13.0N4 123.5E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N4 123.5E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z9 --- 13.5N9 122.2E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 14.0N5 121.0E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 14.6N1 119.9E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 15.4N0 118.9E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 17.6N4 116.8E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM ELSEWHERE --- REMARKS: 081500Z4 POSITION NEAR 13.1N5 123.2E8. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF SAN PABLO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z1 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z1, 090300Z2, 090900Z8 AND 091500Z5.// NNNN ----------------------------------------------------- WDPN31 PGTW 081500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W WARNING NR 7// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 081200Z1 TO 111200Z5 MAY 01. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN PABLO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS IT TRACKED THROUGH THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. UW-CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT WITH DECREASING SHEAR OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW AND DIFFLUENCE. B. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE FORECAST AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE NAVY OPERATIONAL GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (NOGAPS), THE GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN) MODEL, AND THE UK-MET OFFICE (EGRR) MODEL ALL TRACK THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER 48 HOURS AND THEN INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTWARD. THE COLORAD0 STATE UNIVERSITY MODEL (CSUM) AND THE BETA ADVECTION (BAMS) MODELS ALSO TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE DYNAMIC AID CONSENSUS FAVORING THE MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF EGRR. THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS CONSISTS OF THREE DYNAMIC MODELS (NOGAPS, GFDN, AND EGRR). C. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN MINIMAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH AS LAND TOPOGRAPHY INTERFERES WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AFTER 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. D. WIND RADII FOR THE 72 HOUR FORECAST ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGED SIZE STORM. FORECAST TEAM: COX/CUTMAN// NNNN