WTPN31 PGTW 090300 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090000Z9 --- NEAR 11.6N8 121.0E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N8 121.0E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z2 --- 11.9N1 119.6E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 12.8N1 118.5E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 14.0N5 117.6E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 15.3N9 117.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 18.0N9 117.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 090300Z2 POSITION NEAR 11.7N9 120.6E9. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH OF MANILA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 082330Z6 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z9 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z8, 091500Z5, 092100Z2 AND 100300Z4.// BT #0001 NNNN ---------------------------------------------------------- WDPN31 PGTW 090300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W WARNING NR 9// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 090000Z9 TO 120000Z3 MAY 01. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH OF MANILA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 082330Z6 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE WEST OF THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. UW-CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT WITH DECREASING SHEAR OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW AND DIFFLUENCE. B. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE 36 HOUR PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND THUS ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE NORTHERLY AFTER 36 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE FORECAST AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE NAVY OPERATIONAL GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (NOGAPS) AND THE GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN) MODEL TRACKS THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN INCREASINGLY NORTHWARD. THE UK-MET OFFICE (EGRR) MODEL ALSO TRACKS THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THIS TIME EGRR TRACKS THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A SECONDARY LOW LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE DYNAMIC AID CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE NOGAPS AND GFDN TRACKS. THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS CONSISTS OF THREE DYNAMIC MODELS (NOGAPS, GFDN, AND EGRR). C. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH AS LAND TOPOGRAPHY CONTINUES TO INTERFERE WITH LOW LEVEL INFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. D. WIND RADII FOR THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGED SIZE STORM. FORECAST TEAM: CANTRELL/WHITCOMB// NNNN