SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING WTPN31 PGTW 091500 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z2 --- NEAR 12.6N9 119.3E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N9 119.3E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z1 --- 13.2N6 118.4E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 14.0N5 117.6E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 15.1N7 116.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 16.2N9 116.4E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 18.8N7 115.3E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 091500Z5 POSITION NEAR 12.7N0 119.1E2. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091130Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z2 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z2, 100300Z4, 100900Z0 AND 101500Z7.// NNNN --------------------------------------------------- WDPN31 PGTW 091500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W WARNING NR 11// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 091200Z2 TO 121200Z6 MAY 01. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH OF MANILA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 091130Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM MAINTAINED ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. UW-CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT WITH DECREASING SHEAR OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW AND DIFFLUENCE. B. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK MORE NORTHERLY AFTER 24 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE FORECAST AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE NAVY OPERATIONAL GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (NOGAPS) AND THE GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN) MODEL TRACK THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UK-MET OFFICE (EGRR) MODEL TRACKS THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN MORE NORTHWARD. THE NCEP AVIATION MODEL (AVN) AND MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST (MRF) MODEL BOTH TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE DYNAMIC AID CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE GFDN AND EGRR TRACKS. THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS CONSISTS OF THREE DYNAMIC MODELS (NOGAPS, GFDN, AND EGRR). C. TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. D. WIND RADII FOR THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGED SIZE STORM. FORECAST TEAM: COX/CUTMAN// NNNN