WTPN31 PGTW 100300 1. TROPICAL STORM 03W WARNING NR 013 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z1 --- NEAR 13.6N0 119.1E2 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N0 119.1E2 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z4 --- 14.9N4 118.5E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 16.1N8 117.7E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 17.4N2 117.2E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 18.8N7 116.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 21.0N3 116.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 100300Z4 POSITION NEAR 13.9N3 119.0E1. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 124 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 7 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 092330Z7 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND 45 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z1 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z0, 101500Z7, 102100Z4 AND 110300Z5.// ---------------------------------------------------------------- WDPN31 PGTW 100300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W WARNING NR 13// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 100000Z1 TO 130000Z4 MAY 01. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 124 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 7 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 0923300Z7 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 092330Z7 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND 45 KNOTS. UW-CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. B. TS 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE FORECAST AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE NAVY OPERATIONAL GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (NOGAPS) TRACKS THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. THE GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN) MODEL AND THE UK-MET OFFICE (EGRR) MODEL BOTH TRACK THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE DYNAMIC AID CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE GFDN AND EGRR TRACKS. THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS CONSISTS OF THREE DYNAMIC MODELS (NOGAPS, GFDN, AND EGRR). C. TD 03W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. D. WIND RADII FOR THE 24, 36, 48, AND 72 HOUR FORECAST ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGED SIZE STORM. FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/EDBERG//