WTPN31 PGTW 101500 SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 1. TROPICAL STORM 03W WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z4 --- NEAR 15.1N7 119.3E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N7 119.3E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z2 --- 16.2N9 119.2E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z5 --- 17.4N2 119.0E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 18.6N5 118.9E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 19.9N9 118.8E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 23.5N0 120.0E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 101500Z7 POSITION NEAR 15.4N0 119.3E4. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 7 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 101130Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND 45 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z4 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z4, 110300Z5, 110900Z1 AND 111500Z8.// --------------------------------------------------------- WDPN31 PGTW 100300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W WARNING NR 13// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 100000Z1 TO 130000Z4 MAY 01. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 124 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 7 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 0923300Z7 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 092330Z7 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS AND 45 KNOTS. UW-CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. B. TS 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE FORECAST AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE NAVY OPERATIONAL GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (NOGAPS) TRACKS THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST. THE GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN) MODEL AND THE UK-MET OFFICE (EGRR) MODEL BOTH TRACK THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE DYNAMIC AID CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE GFDN AND EGRR TRACKS. THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS CONSISTS OF THREE DYNAMIC MODELS (NOGAPS, GFDN, AND EGRR). C. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. D. WIND RADII FOR THE 24, 36, 48, AND 72 HOUR FORECAST ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGED SIZE STORM. FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/EDBERG//