WTPN31 PGTW 111500 SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z5 --- NEAR 18.9N8 119.4E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N8 119.4E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z3 --- 20.5N7 120.0E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 21.8N1 121.1E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 23.5N0 122.0E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 24.7N3 123.0E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 27.3N2 124.7E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 111500Z8 POSITION NEAR 19.3N3 119.5E6. TROPICAL STORM 03W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE BASHI CHANNEL, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111130Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z5 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z5, 120300Z6, 120900Z2 AND 121500Z9.// ------------------------------------------------------- WDPN31 PGTW 111500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 19// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 111200Z5 TO 141200Z8 MAY 01. A. TROPICAL STORM 03W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE BASHI CHANNEL, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 111130Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS AND AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT TS 03W IS POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND MOVING INTO INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND SHIP REPORTS. B. TS 03W (CIMARON) IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY THE MID-PERIOD, TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, DECOUPLING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN), JAPANESE GLOBAL SPECTRAL (JGSM), AND THE JAPANESE TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS INDICATE THE ONSET EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND ACCELERATION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY THE FORECAST MID-PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SELECTIVE CONSENSUS (SCON) OF GFDN, JGSM, AND JTYM BLENDED WITH PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE EARLY FORECAST PERIOD. THE ALTERNATE SCENARIO OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PRESENTED BY THESE THREE NUMERICAL MODELS HAS A FAIR PROBABILITY OF OCCURENCE. C. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN IMPROVING DYNAMIC CONDITIONS ALOFT AND THEN BEGIN WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BY THE FORECAST MID-PERIOD. D. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED STORM. FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/SHERRY//