WTPN31 PGTW 120300 1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z3 --- NEAR 18.7N6 120.1E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N6 120.1E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z6 --- 20.0N2 121.2E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 21.8N1 122.6E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 23.8N3 123.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 26.3N1 125.8E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 30.4N7 131.6E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 120300Z6 POSITION NEAR 19.0N0 120.4E7. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT SAN ESTEBAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 112215Z2 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS (SSMI). THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z3 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z2, 121500Z9, 122100Z6 AND 130300Z7.// NNNN ---------------------------------------------------- WDPN31 PGTW 120300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 21// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 120000Z3 TO 150000Z6 MAY 01. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT SAN ESTEBAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 112330Z0 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 112215Z2 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS (SSMI). THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF LUZON IS CURRENTLY RESTRICTING IN-FLOW ON THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. UW- CIMSS UPPER LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE SYSTEM IN AN AREA OF MODERATE DIFFLUENCE JUST NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS IS INDICATING WEAK TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. B. TS 03W (CIMARON) IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN), UK-MET OFFICE (EGRR), JAPANESE GLOBAL SPECTRAL (JGSM), AND THE JAPANESE TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, INDICATING AN ACCELERATION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NAVY OPERATIONAL GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (NOGAPS) MODEL DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM AFTER 24 HOURS AND WAS NOT CONSIDERED FOR THIS FORECAST. THE NON-SELECTIVE CONSENSUS (NCON) CONSISTS OF FOUR MODELS (GFDN, EGRR, JGSM, AND JTYM) AND IS THE BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. C. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER 36 HOURS WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE STORM. D. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. FORECAST TEAM: CANTRELL/WHITCOMB// NNNN