SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING WTPN31 PGTW 121500 1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z6 --- NEAR 20.0N2 121.0E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N2 121.0E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z4 --- 21.9N2 122.2E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 23.9N4 123.5E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 26.6N4 125.6E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 19 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 29.3N4 128.5E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z9 --- 33.0N6 136.4E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 121500Z9 POSITION NEAR 20.5N7 121.3E7. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT SAN VICENTE, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 121130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 120931Z6 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 45 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z6 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z6, 130300Z7, 130900Z3 AND 131500Z0.// NNNN ------------------------------------------------------- WDPN31 PGTW 121500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 23// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 121200Z6 TO 151200Z9 MAY 01. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT SAN VICENTE, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 121130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 120931Z6 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER PASS (SSMI). THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 45 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER A STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UW- CIMSS VERTICAL SHEAR PRODUCTS INDICATE TS 03W IS POLEWARD OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. B. TS 03W (CIMARON) IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID- LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN), UK-MET OFFICE (EGRR), JAPANESE GLOBAL SPECTRAL (JGSM), JAPANESE TYPHOON (JTYM), AND THE NAVY OPERATIONAL GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (NOGAPS) MODEL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, INDICATING A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH INCREASING SPEED. THE NON-SELECTIVE CONSENSUS (NCON) CONSISTS OF FIVE MODELS (GFDN, EGRR, JGSM, AND JTYM) AND IS THE BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. C. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING UNDER A STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND INTERACTION WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE. THERE IS A FAIR POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEFORE COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. D. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. FORECAST TEAM: COX/CUTMAN// NNNN