WTPN31 PGTW 130300 1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z4 --- NEAR 21.4N7 121.7E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N7 121.7E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z7 --- 23.9N4 123.4E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 26.5N3 125.6E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 28.8N8 128.4E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 18 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 30.6N9 132.1E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z7 --- 35.2N0 142.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 130300Z7 POSITION NEAR 22.0N4 122.1E6. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 36 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAN YU ISLAND IN THE BASHI CHANNEL, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 122330Z1 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z4 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z3, 131500Z0, 132100Z7 AND 140300Z8.// NNNN -------------------------------------------------- WDPN31 PGTW 130300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 25// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 130000Z4 TO 160000Z7 MAY 01. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 36 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAN YU ISLAND IN THE BASHI CHANNEL, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 122330Z1 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER A SLIGHTLY WEAKER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS CREATING AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES GOOD DIFFLUENCE OVER AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. B. TS 03W (CIMARON) IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID- LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN), UK-MET OFFICE (EGRR), JAPANESE GLOBAL SPECTRAL (JGSM), JAPANESE TYPHOON (JTYM), AND THE NAVY OPERATIONAL GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (NOGAPS) MODEL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, INDICATING A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH INCREASING SPEED. THE NON-SELECTIVE CONSENSUS (NCON) CONSISTS OF FIVE MODELS (GFDN, EGRR, JGSM, AND JTYM) AND IS THE BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. C. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST UNDER AN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE INTO THE STATIONARY FRONT NORTH OF THE SYSTEM BEFORE COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. D. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. FORECAST TEAM: CANTRELL/MAYER/WHITCOMB// NNNN