SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING WTPN31 PGTW 131500 1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z7 --- NEAR 23.2N7 123.7E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.2N7 123.7E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z5 --- 25.4N1 125.9E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 27.5N4 128.4E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 29.5N6 131.7E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z9 --- 31.5N9 135.6E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z0 --- 38.1N2 144.3E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 131500Z0 POSITION NEAR 23.7N2 124.3E0. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131130Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 131200Z7 RADAR FIX. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 50 AND 55 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z7 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z7, 140300Z8, 140900Z4 AND 141500Z1.// NNNN ------------------------------------------------------- WDPN31 PGTW 131500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 27// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 131200Z7 TO 161200Z0 MAY 01. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 131130Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 131200Z7 RADAR FIX. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 50 AND 55 KNOTS AND NEARBY SYNOPTIC REPORTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY, WITH PULSATING CONVECTION, OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER A SLIGHTLY WEAKER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS CREATING AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES GOOD DIFFLUENCE OVER AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. B. TS 03W (CIMARON) IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID- LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN), UK-MET OFFICE (EGRR), JAPANESE GLOBAL SPECTRAL (JGSM), JAPANESE TYPHOON (JTYM), AND THE NAVY OPERATIONAL GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (NOGAPS) MODEL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, INDICATING A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH INCREASING SPEED. THE NON-SELECTIVE CONSENSUS (NCON) CONSISTS OF FIVE MODELS (GFDN, EGRR, JGSM, JTYM, AND NGPS) AND IS THE BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. C. TS 03W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST UNDER AN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. D. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. FORECAST TEAM: COX/BALDINGER/CUTMAN// NNNN