WTPN31 PGTW 140300 1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 029 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z5 --- NEAR 25.4N1 126.4E3 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.4N1 126.4E3 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z8 --- 27.4N3 129.1E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z6 --- 29.0N1 131.9E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z9 --- 30.7N0 135.1E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 22 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z7 --- 33.0N6 139.6E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 140300Z8 POSITION NEAR 25.9N6 127.1E1. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTHWEST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 132330Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140000Z5 RADAR FIX FROM NAHA, OKINAWA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z5 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4, 141500Z1, 142100Z8 AND 150300Z9.// NNNN ---------------------------------------------------- WDPN31 PGTW 140300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 29// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 140000Z5 TO 16000Z7 MAY 01. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTHWEST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 132330Z2 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140000Z5 RADAR FIX FROM NAHA, OKINAWA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC REPORTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 15 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW LOCATED IN STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. B. TS 03W (CIMARON) IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID- LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THE GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN), UK-MET OFFICE (EGRR), JAPANESE GLOBAL SPECTRAL (JGSM), JAPANESE TYPHOON (JTYM), AND THE NAVY OPERATIONAL GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (NOGAPS) MODEL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS, INDICATING A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH INCREASING SPEED. THE NON- SELECTIVE CONSENSUS (NCON) CONSISTS OF FIVE MODELS (GFDN, EGRR, JGSM, JTYM, AND NGPS) AND IS THE BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. C. TS 03W IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST UNDER AN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. D. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. FORECAST TEAM: CANTRELL/MAYER/WHITCOMB// NNNN