WTPN31 PGTW 300300 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300000Z3 --- NEAR 16.6N3 115.7E4 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N3 115.7E4 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z6 --- 17.4N2 114.6E2 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z1 --- 18.5N4 113.3E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z4 --- 19.6N6 111.7E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 20.8N0 110.3E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z3 --- 22.7N1 107.6E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 300300Z6 POSITION NEAR 16.8N5 115.4E1. TROPICAL STORM 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 292330Z9 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z3 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z2, 301500Z9, 302100Z6 AND 010300Z4.// --------------------------------------------------------- WDPN31 PGTW 300300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W WARNING NR 02// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 300000Z3 JUN TO 030000Z3 JUL 01. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 292330Z9 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. VISIBLE ANIMATION DEPICTS BETTER ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A SMALL CDO MAY BE DEVELOPING WHERE A NEW CONVECTIVE BAND HAS BEGUN TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. ANIMATION ALSO INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. 300000Z3 SHIP SYNOPTIC DATA IN THE AREA SUPPORT THE CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATES. B. NOGAPS (NGPS) AND THE UK-MET OFFICE MODEL (EGRR)INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM A MID-LEVEL HIGH HEIGHT CENTER SOUTH OF KYUSHU WILL MAINTAIN STRENGTH NORTH OF TS 05W THROUGHOUT THE 72 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE JAPANESE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (JGSM) SHOWS A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CHINA BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS. THIS TROUGH WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF HAINAN ISLAND AND RESULTS IN RECURVATURE OF TS 05W INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AFTER 48 HOURS. JTWC SUSPECTS JGSM OVER DEEPENS THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CURRENTLY DOES NOT FAVOR THE JGSM SOLUTION. ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE JGSM MODEL PREDICTS RAPID RECURVATURE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY 72 HOURS. THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS IS BASED ON THREE MODELS (NGPS, EGRR AND JGSM). THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF NGPS, EGRR AND JGSM THROUGH 48 HOURS AND A SELECTIVE CONSENSUS OF NGPS AND EGRR THROUGH 72 HOURS. C. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH 42 HOURS THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAND FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS. THE UNRESTRICTED OUTFLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SUPPORTS CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. D. THE WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 291130Z6 QUICKSCAT PASS AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE STORM. FORECAST TEAM: JEFFRIES/MORRIS/EDBERG// NNNN