WTPN31 PGTW 301500 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 301200Z6 --- NEAR 18.1N0 114.3E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N0 114.3E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z1 --- 19.4N4 112.9E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z4 --- 20.6N8 111.2E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 21.8N1 109.5E5 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM OVER WATER RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z5 --- 23.3N8 108.2E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z6 --- 26.9N7 106.1E8 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 301500Z9 POSITION NEAR 18.4N3 113.9E4. TROPICAL STORM 05W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 301130Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGE (SSMI). THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z6 IS 16 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z6, 010300Z4, 010900Z0 AND 011500Z7.// NNNN ----------------------------------------------------- WDPN31 PGTW 301500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W WARNING NR 04// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 301200Z6 JUN TO 031200Z6 JUL 01. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 301130Z8 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD CENTRAL COLD COVER (CCC) DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATION ALSO INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. 301200Z6 SHIP SYNOPTIC DATA IN THE AREA SUPPORT THE CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATES. B. NOGAPS (NGPS), THE NAVY GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS MODEL (GFDN), AND THE UK-MET OFFICE MODEL (EGRR) INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM A MID-LEVEL HIGH HEIGHT CENTER SOUTH OF KYUSHU WILL MAINTAIN STRENGTH NORTH OF TS 05W THROUGHOUT THE 72 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE JAPANESE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (JGSM) SHOWS A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CHINA BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS. THIS TROUGH WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF HAINAN ISLAND AND RESULTS IN RECURVATURE OF TS 05W INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AFTER 48 HOURS. JTWC SUSPECTS JGSM OVER DEEPENS THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CURRENTLY DOES NOT FAVOR THE SHARPER RECURVATURE OF THE JGSM SOLUTION. ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE JGSM MODEL AND JMA TYPHOON MODEL (JTYM) PREDICT RAPID RECURVATURE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY 72 HOURS. THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS IS BASED ON THREE MODELS (NGPS, EGRR GFDN, JTYM, AND JGSM). THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL FIVE MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARDS NGPS, GFDN, AND EGRR AFTER 48 HOURS. C. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAND FROM 24 TO 72 HOURS. THE UNRESTRICTED OUTFLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SUPPORTS CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. D. THE WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE STORM. FORECAST TEAM: COX/WAUGAMAN/SHERRY// NNNN