WTPN31 PGTW 010300 1. TROPICAL STORM 05W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z1 --- NEAR 19.4N4 112.7E1 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N4 112.7E1 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z4 --- 20.9N1 110.9E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 22.6N0 109.3E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z5 --- 24.3N9 108.0E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 010300Z4 POSITION NEAR 19.8N8 112.3E7. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 302330Z1 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z1 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z0, 011500Z7, 012100Z4 AND 020300Z5.// ------------------------------------------------------- WDPN31 PGTW 010300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W WARNING NR 06// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 010000Z1 JUL TO 021200Z5 JUL 01. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 302330Z1 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TS 05W HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH NEW BANDING FEATURES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATION ALSO INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. B. NOGAPS (NGPS) AND THE NAVY GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS MODEL (GFDN) CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL CHINA. THE JAPANESE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (JGSM) AND THE UK-MET OFFICE MODEL (EGRR) INITIALLY INDICATE THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM BUT BY THE 12 TO 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THESE TWO MODELS SHOW A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CHINA. THIS TROUGH WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF HAINAN ISLAND AND RESULTS IN RECURVATURE OF TS 05W INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AFTER 36 HOURS. JTWC SUSPECTS JGSM AND EGRR OVER DEEPEN THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CURRENTLY DOES NOT FAVOR THE SHARPER RECURVATURE OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 24 HOURS. THE JGSM MODEL AND JMA TYPHOON MODEL (JTYM) PREDICT RECURVATURE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY 36 HOURS. THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS THROUGH 24 HOURS IS BASED ON FIVE MODELS (NGPS, EGRR, GFDN, JTYM, AND JGSM). THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL FIVE MODELS THROUGH 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARDS NGPS, GFDN, AND EGRR AFTER 24 HOURS. C. TS 05W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH 12 HOURS THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAND. D. THE WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE STORM. FORECAST TEAM: CANTRELL/MORRIS/EDBERG//