WTPN31 PGTW 011500 1. TYPHOON 05W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z4 --- NEAR 20.1N3 111.6E9 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N3 111.6E9 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z2 --- 21.1N4 110.4E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z5 --- 22.5N9 109.1E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z3 --- 24.4N0 107.5E3 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z6 --- 26.8N6 106.2E9 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 20.4N6 111.3E6. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 7 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011130Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 TO 77 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z4 IS 18 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z4, 020300Z5, 020900Z1 AND 021500Z8. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN -------------------------------------------------------- WDPN31 PGTW 011500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 05W WARNING NR 08// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 011200Z3 TO 031200Z6 JUL 01. A. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 011130Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 TO 77 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TY 05W HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH AN EYE DEVELOPING. B. NOGAPS (NGPS) AND THE NAVY GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS MODEL (GFDN) CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL CHINA. THE JAPANESE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL (JGSM) INITIALLY INDICATES THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM BUT BY THE 12 TO 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD THE MODEL SHOWS A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST CHINA. THIS TROUGH WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF HAINAN ISLAND AND RESULTS IN RECURVATURE OF TY 05W INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AFTER 36 HOURS. JTWC SUSPECTS JGSM OVER DEEPENS THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CURRENTLY DOES NOT FAVOR THE SHARPER RECURVATURE. THE UK- MET OFFICE MODEL (EGRR) DOES NOT CARRY THE SYSTEM PAST 24 HOURS. ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 24 HOURS. THE JGSM MODEL AND JMA TYPHOON MODEL (JTYM) PREDICT RECURVATURE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY 36 HOURS. THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS THROUGH 24 HOURS IS BASED ON FIVE MODELS (NGPS, EGRR, GFDN, JTYM, AND JGSM). THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL FIVE MODELS THROUGH 24 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARDS NGPS AND GFDN AFTER 24 HOURS. C. TY 05W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAND, DISSIPATING BY 48 HOURS. D. THE WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE STORM. FORECAST TEAM: COX/WAUGAMAN/SHERRY// NNNN