WTPN31 PGTW 021500 1. TYPHOON 05W (DURIAN) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 021200Z5 --- NEAR 22.1N5 108.1E0 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N5 108.1E0 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z3 --- 22.9N3 106.9E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z6 --- 23.9N4 105.4E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z4 --- 25.3N0 103.7E1 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 021500Z8 POSITION NEAR 22.3N7 107.8E6. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF HANOI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 7 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021130Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z5 IS 15 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z5, 030300Z6, 030900Z2 AND 031500Z9. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06W (UTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN ------------------------------------------------------ WDPN31 PGTW 021500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON (TY) 05W WARNING NR 12// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 021200Z5 TO 040000Z4 JUL 01. A.TYPHOON (TY) 05W (DURIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF HANOI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 7 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 021130Z7 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TY 05W HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. B. NOGAPS, THE JMA TYPHOON MODEL (JTYM), THE JMA GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL, THE UK-MET OFFICE MODEL (EGRR), AND THE NAVY GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS MODEL (GFDN) ALL TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD INTO CHINA AND DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS THROUGH 12 HOURS IS BASED ON FIVE MODELS (NGPS, EGRR, GFDN, JTYM, AND JGSM). THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL FIVE MODELS THROUGH 12 HOURS AND PERSISTENCE AFTER THAT. C. TY 05W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER LAND, DISSIPATING BY 36 HOURS. D. THE WIND RADII ARE OMITTED OVER LAND. FORECAST TEAM: COX/WAUGAMAN/SHERRY// NNNN